The Federal Reserve cautiously hinted that it will cut interest rates further this year, and the U.S. dollar index continued to rise.

On October 9, in early Asian trading on Thursday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 98.79. On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index rose for the third consecutive trading day, hitting the 99 mark in late trading, then retreating, and finally closing up 0.26% at 98.84, a new high in more than two months. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.121%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, closed at 3.591%. As safe-haven funds continued to pour into the precious metals market, spot gold historically rose above the US$4,000/ounce mark, and finally closed up 1.43% at US$4,041.65/oz. Spot silver followed gold's record gains, reaching a maximum of US$49.55/oz, setting another 14-year high, and finally closed up 2.17% at US$48.87/oz. Spot palladium surged 10%, hitting a new high since May of the previous year. As the prospects for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine become increasingly dim, international crude oil maintains its gains. After data showed that U.S. EIA crude oil inventories increased more than expected last week, WTI crude oil narrowed its intraday gains and finally closed up 0.28% at US$61.97/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 0.38% at US$65.8/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 98.79. In the next few days, the market will still welcome speeches from many Federal Reserve officials, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s public statement on Thursday night. Technically, the U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle above resistance at 98.85–99.00. If this attempt is successful, the USD Index will move towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 100.00–100.15 areabetween.

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1639. EUR/USD extended its losses for three consecutive days, falling 0.32% as the U.S. government shutdown was extended, and minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting showed that despite easing policy, officials remained cautious about inflation. Technically, a successful test of the 1.1585–1.1600 support level will open the way to a test of the next support level of 1.1450–1.1465.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3410. Concerns about persistent inflation, slow economic growth and a loosening labor market may influence the Bank of England's decision. So far, the Bank of England has maintained a "gradual and cautious" monetary easing policy. Technically, the pound is extending its slow and painful bullish recovery after falling to a seven-week low last Thursday. Technically, the nearest support level for GBP/USD lies in the 1.3335–1.3350 range. A break below the 1.3335 level will push GBP/USD towards the next support levels at 1.3150–1.3165.

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1) Gold market trend analysis

In the Asian market on Thursday, gold hovered around 4022.26. Gold prices maintained a positive stance around $4,010 after retreating from a record high of $4,059 set in the previous session. Wider geopolitical and economic uncertainty has solidified trader demand for safe-haven assets.

Technical aspect: Gold prices have been overbought for a long time, and the high RSI indicator provides room for a correction. If risk aversion continues to subside, gold prices may test the $4,000 mark or even lower support. However, global economic uncertainty still exists, and interest rate cut expectations and central bank buying will still provide a buffer to avoid a plunge.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Thursday’s Asian session, crude oil was trading around 61.48. Oil prices hit a one-week high on Wednesday as traders expected a lack of progress on a Ukraine peace deal to keep sanctions on Russia in effect, while reports showed growth in U.S. oil consumption. In addition, investors expect that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates, which also provides support for crude oil futures. Investors have been deprived of most U.S. economic data amid the U.S. government shutdown. According to CME Group's (CME Group) FedWatch tool, the Fed is widely expected toThe interest rate was cut by 25 basis points at the meeting on October 28-29. Cutting interest rates could boost economic growth and oil demand. Oil markets held on to gains as traders focused more on a U.S. report showing an increase in oil consumption last week than on a larger-than-expected build in crude inventories.

Technical aspect: The oscillator value shows that the current oil price is bullish, but since in 2 months, MACD has been above the zero axis for less than 5 days, RSI has almost fluctuated around 50, and MACD has not clearly pulled out a long red column recently, so the overall oil price is still biased towards shock, and there is no obvious bullish trend.

Foreign exchange market trading reminder on October 9, 2025

①14:00 Germany’s August seasonally adjusted trade account

②19:30 The European Central Bank releases the minutes of the September monetary policy meeting

③20:30 Number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week to October 4

④20:30 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivers a speech

⑤20:35 Federal Reserve Board Governor Bowman delivers a speech

⑥22:00 U.S. August wholesale sales monthly rate

⑦22:30 U.S. EIA natural gas inventories for the week to October 3

⑧00:45 the next day Federal Reserve Governor Barr delivers a speech on the economic outlook

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